Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
255 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Valid 12Z Mon Jun 16 2025 - 12Z Wed Jun 18 2025

...Flash flooding possible across portions of
Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Central Appalachians/Kentucky on Monday and
the Central Appalachians/Central Plains/Midwest Tuesday...

...Severe thunderstorms possible for portions of the
Northern/Central Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley Monday, Central
Plains Tuesday, and Midwest/Great Lakes Wednesday...

...Fire weather threat for the Great Basin/Southwest on Monday and
southeast Arizona/western New Mexico on Tuesday...the Southwest
sees significant heat...

The general flow pattern features troughing across portions of the
Midwest through Wednesday which should keep much of the country
east of the Rockies and east of the Southern Plains unsettled. 
The mean trough will be composed of two pieces -- an initial
trough that shears out of the Ohio Valley and northwest Gulf
Coast, and a kicker disturbance that travels through the West and
Central Plains into the Corn Belt Wednesday.  The kicker
disturbance will cause the warm core ridge in New Mexico and
ridging across the Northern Plains to weaken by Tuesday, with
ridging rebounding in the Desert Southwest on Wednesday.

Near and ahead of the Ohio Valley to western Gulf coast upper
level trough will lie a quasi-stationary front which will provide
the focus for thunderstorms with heavy rainfall Monday and Tuesday
across areas with soils that have become increasingly saturated
over recent days.  The highest flash flood risk on Monday lies
near Kentucky, the Central Appalachians, Virginia, and North
Carolina on Monday.  On Tuesday, the flash flood threat becomes
more restricted in the Central Appalachians.  On Wednesday, the
risk lessens as the front/focus for the most active thunderstorm
activity lifts northeast through New England.

As a progressive, kicker disturbance moves through the West, it
leads to a fire weather risk on Monday across portions of the
Great Basin, Columbia Basin, and Colorado Rockies before its weak
cold front attempts to move through the area Tuesday.  The fire
weather threat then shifts towards southeast Arizona and western
New Mexico on Tuesday.  Severe weather is in the offing for Monday
across portions of the Northern & Central Plains and Upper
Mississippi Valley as the disturbance aloft helps to flatten the
ridging which previously existed across the region.  Its front
will focus the highest flash flood risk Tuesday across the Central
Plains/Midwest.  As it continues its trek eastward and its front
sags south, the highest severe weather threat shifts south more
solidly into the Central Plains on Tuesday and onward into the
Midwest/Great Lakes on Wednesday.

An upper level ridge over New Mexico will lead to another day of
significant heat across the Southwest on Monday before it weakens
on Tuesday taking the edge off of the heat briefly, before
rebounding across the Desert Southwest on Wednesday leading to
renewed heat.  Record high temperatures could be tied of exceeded
in spots on Monday.  Heat advisories remain in effect across
portions of southern New Mexico and far west Texas on Monday and
Tuesday, with Extreme Heat Warnings continuing for southern
Arizona and far southeast California on Monday.  This is the
region with the highest odds of 100F+ high temperatures, with
110F+ expected for another day in the Desert Southwest, and 120F+
in Death Valley on Monday and Wednesday.

Roth

Graphics available at
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